THE NBA PLAY OF THE DAY 😈
(1.5u) James Harden Under 8.5 Assists
#ClipperNation vs #MakeItMagic
This is a perfect spot to fade Harden’s assists, and the market hasn’t fully adjusted to the version of James Harden we’re seeing right now. The Clippers are in shambles injury-wise and it has completely shifted Harden’s role as he’s become a pure scorer, not a facilitator.
Los Angeles is without Kawhi Leonard, Derrick Jones Jr., Bradley Beal, and Jordan Miller, leaving Harden as one of the only offensive engines on the floor. And his response has been exactly what we’d expect when he’s forced to carry the scoring load.
His last three games:
41 points (25 FGA)
37 points (22 FGA)
28 points (25 FGA)
Those are season-high field-goal attempt numbers in two of the last three games. Compare that to early in the year when Kawhi was healthy:
15, 12, 17 FGA.
Completely different role. Completely different version of Harden.
And when the shots go up, the assists go down.
In the absence of Kawhi Leonard, Harden has only cleared 8.5 assists three times.
Remove both Kawhi Leonard and Derrick Jones Jr., and Harden is under this number in six straight games with:
5, 5, 6, 6, 5, 5 assists.
Including his last game being w/o Kawhi and DJJ, he ended on 5 assists against Philly.
And now he draws the Orlando Magic, one of the toughest assist matchups in the league.
Orlando ranks:
* 1st fewest assists allowed to point guards in the last 7 games
* 3rd fewest assists allowed overall
* 7th fewest assists allowed to point guards overall
* 4th most points allowed to PGs (perfect for scoring-heavy Harden)
The Magic are a funnel defence meaning they let point guards score, but they do not allow them to distribute.
Just look at the assists allowed to high-end passers this year:
* Trae Young under 8.5 — 6 assists
* Josh Giddey under 7.5 — 3 assists
And Harden’s own history vs Orlando paints the same picture:
4, 5, and 5 assists while playing around 36+ minutes .
Add in the game environment: Orlando comes in as -6 point favourites and with the current state of the Clippers, I wouldn’t be shocked if this game isn’t close.
The Clippers have fallen from No. 3 in defensive efficiency last season to No. 23 thus far in 2025. With Paolo Banchero on the shelf, Orlando's Jalen Suggs has the opportunity to fill the box score against LA tonight.
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